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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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