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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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Showing 36 to 40 news of total 6871 |
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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