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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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