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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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