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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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