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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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