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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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