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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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