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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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