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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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