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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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