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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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