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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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