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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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