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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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