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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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