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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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