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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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