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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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