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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
 Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing some support to product crack spreads and refining margins. With most refineries now back online in all main regions, refinery intakes have risen steadily, to stand some 1.0 mb/d higher in September compared to the same month last year.
As a result of new refining capacity over the last year, refinery runs during winter are likely to reach new record highs, leading to potentially higher supply in the product markets. At the same time, economic headwinds pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing in the OECD may result in a possible decline in consumption of heavier fuels, weighing on the outlook for product markets over the winter season, while increased competition from ethane and LPG may also bite into demand for products including naphtha and transport fuels. In the US, gasoil consumption is expected to receive support from the manufacturing, construction and freight sectors.
Moreover, a seasonal pick up in heating oil demand this winter is expected, despite increasing substitution by natural gas. Jet fuel markets should also remain supported by an uptick in travel activities, particularly in the holiday season. In contrast, the seasonal decline in gasoline demand in the winter months will once again weigh on prices and ultimately refining economics (Graph 1). This may result in higher gasoline exports in 4Q19 to prevent strong inventory builds and to keep gasoline prices stable. Naphtha crack spreads will also come under pressure and suffer losses as strong LPG output, and lower LPG prices in the US continues to compete with naphtha.
US oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change In Europe, the slowdown in transportation fuel demand will continue representing a challenge to product markets. Despite a slight pick-up in gasoline consumption in 1H19, mainly in France, unfavourable economic fundamentals have dampened demand in Germany. Moreover, a mild pick up in gasoline powered vehicle sales observed in France, Italy and Spain has been offset by a decline in overall car sales. The pressure in Europe’s product markets could be further exacerbated by new cracking and other upgrading projects in Russia and Belarus, which is projected to increase regional transport fuel production by the end of 2019.
Furthermore, data reflects a declining trend in product demand in the fourth quarter, particularly for naphtha and residual fuel. In Asia, gasoil markets will remain supported by industrial and transportation demand. However, product balances will most likely soften compared with the previous year, once all refineries restore their operation activities in 4Q19, resulting in excess product supply, particularly for gasoline. Concerning the IMO 2020, a combination of declining heavy crude availability, increased refinery conversion capacity, growing appetite for heavy crude, and stricter sulphur limits on marine bunker fuel are likely to lead to rising prices for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO). At the same time, the declining availability of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) could also hold up prices for that product to some degree.
Together with a mismatch in terms of quality between available and required crude slates for refinery intake, this could provide limited support to processing rates as refineries will have to resort to higher intakes to boost fuel oil or compliant marine fuel production. Graph 2: OECD Europe oil demand growth by main petroleum products, mb, y-o-y change Looking ahead, factors such as the onset of the winter season, healthy demand for middle distillates in Asia, and preparations for IMO should support middle-to-heavy product markets in the coming months. At the same time, uncertainties regarding the global economic outlook, declining car sales and fuel substitution programmes in Europe, and higher products supply from Asia could limit the upward trend in the product markets this winter.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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