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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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