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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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