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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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