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Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
 Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch Ratings says. We have revised down the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas price assumptions as we now anticipate a slower recovery in European natural gas prices due to a supply glut in the LNG market and slower economic growth prospects globally.
Oil prices spiked in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia, but have since subsided. According to media reports, Saudi Aramco has made progress in restoring production, although we assume full recovery of capacity to levels available pre-attack could take time. We believe that disruptions ultimately will have a limited impact on the supply-demand balance this year, especially as the market remains otherwise well-supplied. We have kept our price deck assumption for Brent at USD65/bbl for 2019, though we expect volatility to remain significant in 4Q19, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
The attack highlighted the vulnerability of oil-producing infrastructure, not only in Saudi Arabia, but also elsewhere in the Middle East, although it has not caused us to change our fundamental view on the sector. An escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, such as further attacks or a military conflict, could lead to higher prices, at least temporarily, due to the effect on the physical market or a 'geopolitical premium'.
Fitch Ratings further noted that, Fitch Ratings still assumes an average Brent price to be marginally lower at USD62.5/bbl in 2020 compared to 2019, due to waning demand and increased supply from continued US shale growth and recovered production in Saudi Arabia. However, we also expect OPEC+ to manage supply to avoid large surpluses or deficits. In 2020, the coming into force of International Maritime Organization Sulphur 2020 regulation could support demand for Brent and WTI, which are low-sulphur oil grades. The long-term price of USD57.5/bbl for Brent takes into account our view on the marginal costs of oil production.
Fitch Ratings lowered their NBP prices for 2019-2021. European spot natural gas prices collapsed in 1Q19. Increased supply from new LNG plants in the US and elsewhere was not matched by sufficient demand growth. In 9M19 the NBP price averaged USD4.7/mcf, compared with USD8.1/mcf in 9M18. Furthermore, the daily closing price has fluctuated between USD2.4 and USD3.9/mcf since the beginning of August. Prices are likely to rise in 4Q19 when the heating season starts. However, we expect the recovery to be slow given unusually high volumes of gas accumulated in European underground storage facilities and slowing demand.
According to latest report, Fitch Ratings believes that re-balancing in the gas market may take longer than we had anticipated primarily due to lower Chinese growth. China was the major driver for LNG demand and accounted for 48% of global demand growth over the past five years (2014-2018), followed by Europe (19%) and India (12%), according to BP. However, Chinese LNG demand may wane because of slowing economic growth amid the US-China trade war. China's authorities expect its annual gas consumption growth to decelerate to 10% yoy in 2019 from 17.5% in 2018.
According Fitch Ratings recent repot, the Fitch Ratings's long-term view on NBP is unchanged. While more active LNG trade is likely to result in narrower differentials between various hubs, we believe the USD3.75/mcf spread between Henry Hub and NBP we currently assume in the long-term assumptions is reasonable and accounts for full-cycle costs of delivering natural gas from the US to Europe.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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