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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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Showing 1336 to 1340 news of total 6871 |
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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