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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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