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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
 Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the summer months, one would be (theoretically) extra bullish in terms of what to expect for the final part of 2019, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research in his latest report.
However, can the current positive dynamics be sustained over the next three months? According to Thomas Chasapis many views have been expressed in respect to the true state of the dry bulk market. At this point, it seems as though the most vital question is as to whether the market has any direction at all (with the hope of some sort rebalancing soon), or whether the recent summer trends in the freight market have created ample artificial noise in a market that is currently stagnant.
Thomas Chasapis further noted, the dry bulk freight market is already on a downward correction, hardly a surprise, given that the balance point of the market does not seem to be by any measure with a BDI of above 2,500bp (at least for now). This has been expressed emphatically in the paper market, with current forward curves indicating massive corrections moving forward. Notwithstanding this, future contracts for the BCI-5TC average for the final quarter have been formed at slightly above US$ 25,000/day. It is true that this level is an extreme discounted when compared to where the current freight market is at, but when we consider that we are talking about a 3-month average figure which is above US$ 10,000/day more than the year-to-date average.
Just remember what we were seeing for similar contracts exactly one year earlier and at what levels the market closed off the final three months of 2018. So, are we truly faced with a pessimistic view right now? The reality is slightly more ambiguous as we shift the focus over to the macroeconomic indicators. Y-o-y massive corrections have brought with them a huge wave of negativism towards the market.
According to Thomas Chasapis, forward contracts for 2020 felt a correction of around US$ 5,000/day, while 2021 and the years beyond that were a little less so effected though still noting significant corrections. All-in-all, even under these conditions, there are many positive indicators to be seen as well. If the current forward curve is "right", the freight market will be on time to catch-up and finish the year with an average of at least on par with that of 2018 (if not higher). Despite the impressive recovery, many will probably still view the year as a step back. However, it is interesting to note how this is translated when we assess asset prices into the mix? Taking as general indication the value of a 5yr old Capesize vessel, year-to-date the average figure has eased back by roughly 11%, while, given the overall stability of second hand values, we can expect this discount to remain relatively the same during the remaining months of the year. So, in terms of an earnings to price ratio analysis, this would suggest that the market is in a much better state (y-o -y) in relative terms. However, things change when we compare this to the risk profile involved. At this point, the excessive volatility levels noted in freight rates would point to the current prices being in theory fairly "expensive".
This however is only partially true, as volatility measures are agnostic to any market direction and only measure the difference from the average (either on the positive or the negative side). Given the aggressive upward movement in freight rates as of late, the standard deviation inevitably gives an exaggerated result. However, when you take into consideration what we have been seeing in the futures market, you may well find further ground to support the indication that has been given from the earnings to price ratio side, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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