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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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