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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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