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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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