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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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Showing 56 to 60 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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