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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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