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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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