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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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