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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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