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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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