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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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