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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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