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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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