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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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