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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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