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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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