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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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