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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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