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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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