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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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