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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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