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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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