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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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