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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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