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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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