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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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