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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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