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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
 The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any positive signs to be had. All this seems to have its roots partly in the correction noted back in November of 2018, while the actual damage was not so much that made to realized earnings but rather the steep shift of sentiment towards doubt and skepticism in respect to the whole recovery story we have been seeing since 2016, Allied research report said.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping, in terms of numbers, the BDI has eased back to 645bp (while just 10 days back was above the 1,000bp mark), its lowest level since August 2016. This steep correction is in line with that of the Capesize segment, which witnessed a 49.9% decrease the past 10 days, while the free fall in the overall market had already begun from the very start of the year, with the Panamax and Supramax segments having lost 60% and 49% since early January. Even if we take under consideration the Chinese New Year lull, the accident at the Vale dam and the puzzling Chinese –US trade relations, it seems as though the problems being faced now by the market are deeper rooted and require a more wholistic view to be taken.
Allied further noted that, the paper market could be of help in capturing parts of the underlining sentiment at play in the market. After a good rally and performance during the summer period, late August saw a peak in the levels noted in FFA contracts for both 4Q18 but also for forward quarters, such as 1Q19. Indicatively, the Capesize TCA reached above US$ 15,000/day, while the Panamax TCA and Supramax TCA, were well above US$ 11,000/day and even reached levels close to US$ 12,000/day in the case of the Panamaxes.
Looking at it in retrospect, the exaggeration is rather apparent. However, the interesting part comes later. In November the derivatives market was on a sharp downward correction, heavily influenced by the major drop in the Capesize freight market. At this point, we saw a hefty collapse in Capesize FFA rates, with contracts for the month of January being at levels of around US$ 11,500/day, far more bearish than the US$ 14,142/day the actual market witnessed in the end. At the same time the Panamax and Supramax sizes noted levels of between US$ 10,000 and US$ 11,000 per day in the FFA market, while the actual market figures closed in at US$ 8,342 and US$ 8,547 per day respectively.
From this it is interesting to note how the paper market even at its most bearish proved to be overly optimistic rather than going with the theoretical approach whereby an actual market shock would reflect a bigger asymmetry in the paper market (as that note in the Capesize market). If the trends in paper market seem to be rather disconnected with what the actual market is doing, it’s even harder to put your finger on the recent share buy-back activity noted at the final part of last year. Given what we witnessed during January, this move seems somehow “expensive” now, especially in an industry that is struggling to be publicly funded. Either there was a touch of conviction as to the future market’s potential (despite the stringer availability of capital overall and the future need for sufficient cash flow so as to meet upcoming regulatory requirements), or it was merely a decision of buying below net asset value and boosting key financial ratios such as EPS. It is likely that the answer lies somewhere in between. All being said, there is still hope for a quick recovery at hand, but given the severe weakening in freight returns, maybe it is time to re-evaluate the levels at which the market will be finding a balance during the course of the year said Allied.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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